Tag: Clinton

The Rest Of The 2016 Presidential Race

By now, we can see what’s taking shape. In late April of 2016, we’re headed into what giddy pundits call “Super Tuesday” for a third time, this one on April 26th. Hardly super, but includes Pennsylvania so that’s nifty. Big deal. No further primary elections matter.

On the Red side, the whalloping Trump did in New York was catastrophic to Cruz, as predicted here last month. We still have Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey to come. Trump’s backyard and garage, Cruz is guaranteed to show 3rd in these. Maryland and Delaware are no friend to Cruz either, his “ownership” of the 2013 gov’t shutdown is recalled bitterly by the people of Maryland. Delaware… not many delegates, but the main biz of the state is right up Trump’s alley, so i expect a highly sympathetic electorate.

On the Blue side, mirroring closely, the whallop of the girl over the boy in New York has mathematically ended his chances. Again, as described here earlier, Bernieboy will not quit. He is not in it to win, never has been. He’s in it to go down in history, as the guy who made it possible to elect a socialist president in 2028.

From here on out, we should see the end of debates, and was surprised that there was a final one in Brooklyn last week. Neither frontrunner needs the bickering, since the nominations are locked. But many still don’t see that, so expect to see political money in May abandoning downballot races and flocking to the top in a desperate gambit to deny one or the other candidate a lock.

The idea of a 3rd-ballot moderate emerging at the Republican Convention in Cleveland is a fucking farce. Both major camps of delegates will be conservative extremists, 40% from the Tea Party and 40% from the evangy wing. Ohmygod, they’re going to need splatter shields, even before someone tries to deny Trump the nomination. With this balance of internecine animosity, unique in American politics this century, the Rules Committee will be paralyzed. Expect fantastic antics from the Platform Committee too, as it tries to stave off it’s own obsolescence.

The GOP convention will be hilarious. Scheduled from July 18th to the 21st, but wouldn’t be surprised if it ran to the 23rd. The “old hands” and half the “rising stars” will have power ripped from them, both behind the curtain and on the floor. And truly, as the Candidate Who Must Not Be Named once said, if they deny him the nomination, it’ll be a freakin’ riot. Whatever happens, Reince Priebus is doomed, and after seeing his evolving broadcast persona throughout April, i think he knows it too. The only meaningful thing Reince can do now, is to hire Hell’s Angels for convention security.

In a genius stroke of luck, the Democrats scheduled their convention for 1 week later, July 25-28 in Philadelphia. If it had been before the GOP swapmeet, the Dems would be in a real bind about who to nominate as Vice President, not knowing who the top of the Republican ticket was. If it’s Trump-Carson, then Clinton-Warren might be best. If it’s Kasich-Fiorina then maybe Clinton-Biden has a better chance. Whatever it is from the Republicans, the Democrats have an extra week to mull it over this year.

On towards the Autumn, expect four debates. If it’s Trump as expected, debating him 1-on-1 is much easier than on a 4-person stage. Trump is a mimic on stage, an empath. That’s what makes his stump speeches sound genuine. In a debate, if you treat him civil, you get a civil and reasonable Trump. Debate him hard, and you let out the hard Trump. He’s not particularly eloquent, but chatty and with good timing. The formula for beating him in a debate is easy: chalk it up, don’t talk it up.

Trot out facts and policies and leave them hanging. Whichever ones Donald picks up to contest, his counterpoint will fall flat with the political middle. After a few hours of such debate, it will be painfully obvious which candidate is prepared for the job and which one needs big hands to stroke a big ego. No kidding, halfway through the second debate, Americans will be a fuckofalot more comfortable with Hillary as president. Like magic, in early October, Merritt Garland is confirmed to the Supreme Court. Wow, is Mitch McConnell a dick or what.

The most meta-interesting thing this cycle is that Hispanics will finally become the political force they might have been. Trump’s rise has been on the backs of denigrated Hispanics, so you’ll see a spike in registration in that group. If it’s Clinton-Castro in the general election, the Dems get a 20-year honeymoon with the entire Hispanic-origin population, flipping New Mexico, Nevada, Texas and Colorado to the blue side.

March 15th 2016: The Day We Elected Hillary Clinton

And there you have it, the day American politics changed forever: March 15th, 2016. Obviously i’ve been saying this for some time now, but did not know the exact date it would fall on. The Ides of March indeed!

It can be seen in the speeches made by the four remaining Republican candidates on this day, combined with some easy delegate math, and a bit of not-too-hard scrying. First, the speeches on the evening of this “Mini Super” Tuesday:

Rubio: Still the fidgety characteristics which killed him in the debates. Not sure why people in the early stages of this election cycle called him a master debater, but he… oh, OK, now i get it. Ooops. But any way, the stakes seemed too high for him, his flan is half-baked. In style, he kept missing lines and stumbling over expected applause lines. In substance, it was a glowing Shining City speech, and he dangled his resume out there, since he’s not running to keep his Senate seat this year. Prediction: he replaces Reince Priebus, and his seat goes blue.

Kasich: Humble plus defiant equals respect. Genuine and heartfelt, a good speech from someone who doesn’t miss his lines very much. Keeps the persona going, as a manager who can get the best out of people, and winning at home might just drag out some funding in a post-Marco field. Plus, he ripped his jacket open like he was going all Superman on us. He’s the guy everyone wants to win, and this somewhat rambling speech could just start the money faucet running. Rambling is not bad if it’s homespun, only if it’s nutty.

Cruz: One thing Rubio and Kasich did, was to place teenaged daughters in the camera frame. Instead, Cruz chose his Texas campaign manager. Oh boy, that was a mistake. The looks on that guy’s face face flashed so quickly between different shades of worry, and mind you this is the campaign director in a state where Cruz already won the primary. Out of the gate, Cruz said “Tonight was a good night.” His hometown guy should not be bugging out that bad, if it was good night. Yikes, he just lost 4 of the country’s 12 biggest states, and three of them are 21st-century battlegrounds.

The outward appearance of the speech is summed up by one thing: Cruz had more collar than neck. He has a way of bobbing his head like a turtle when he speaks, and his collar was already starched too high for his actual neck to reach it even when he was not hunched over. Combined with Cruz’s flawlessly soul-less delivery, this made Ted look like a Munster, though not sure which one. Lurch or Eddie maybe, but there’s some Fester in the cadence of his speeches.

The gist of Cruz’s speech was “Hey, I’m what you got left.” Was sad to hear him try to make Nancy roll over by stealing her husband’s “morning in America” line, and even sadder that he mentioned his endorsement by Senator Lee of Utah. Mike Lee is the only one. Cruz works with 99 other Senators, and he’s the last Senator in the race, but the other 98 are so disgusted by Cruz that they won’t touch him. Today, even the far-far right wingnut Senator from Oklahoma, James Inhofe, endorsed Kasich. Yikes, Inhofe may be the only Senator further to the right of Cruz. If he’s going for the remaining moderate in the race, you know Ted’s co-workers despise him something terrible.

Trump: What else can it be but: terrific, really, terrific these people, and more great things, you know, greatest things, really ever, God bless you, Good night.

As things stand now, the primaries are over. Hillary has a 2-to-1 lead over Bernie with 49.9% of the races over, meaning that he’d have to beat her 67-to-33 in all the remaining Democratic primaries. Ain’t happening, so Hillary is our Blue candidate. But Bernie will go the distance. He’s having a ball, and sees his race now as a chance to give America its Socialism 101 lesson. The internet money keeps rolling in, so Sanders can keep jetting around the country, so he will.

It’s not about winning, it’s about the crusade for Bernie now. In his mind, he is now fulfilling his life’s pinnacle purpose: to re-introduce modern America to socialism, after 80 years in the doghouse. For the first time since the end of the Cold War it is now possible to separate socialism from communism in the minds of Americans, and Sanders wants to go down in history as the guy to do that. So he will.

On the Red side, about $200 million has been spent so far, and $180 million of that went down a rabbit hole (most recently the $20 million spent to deny Trump a win in Florida… where he won 66 of the 67 counties). With Rubio gone, the remaining non-Trumpers are STILL fracturing, some holding their noses and backing Cruz, and others plumping up Kasich’s bid for a brokered convention. Trump has a little over 50% of the delegates he needs to reign at the convention, with a little less than half of the primaries to go.

Trump is right on pace for 1237 delegates, as long as the opposition remains fractured, and it looks like it is. A couple meetings later this week, one in Florida and one in Washington DC, are planned to do an autopsy on that wasted $20 million and decide where the anti-Trumpers go from here. Rich donors are meeting in Florida and party “strategists” are meeting in the nation’s capital. The hilarious thing is that there are TWO meetings, virtually guaranteeing that the ensuing non-Trump efforts will be disconnected and, thus, both fail. Anything they decide (separately) will be too late for the round of primaries on Tuesday March 22nd, and judging by their ineffectiveness so far, will fail to tilt anything on the farther group of primaries on the following Saturday, March 26th.

It bears repeating that this is why i do not fear the rise of an oligarchy to power in the United States. Rhetoric from libertarians on the right and socialists on the left notwithstanding, the conspiracy theories almost never prove true. A basic fact of human nature ensures this: rich and powerful people are “type A” personalities, which makes them particularly unsuited to cooperate. This has turned the famous Citizens United decision by the highest court (allowing unlimited political donations) into a disaster for the Republicans. Various competing billionaires have carved up the right wing into political baronies by pouring unprecedented cash into GOP primaries. Predictable results.

Like i said, Trump is on a pace for the necessary 1237 delegates, since primaries in New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York are all coming up. He will flatten Cruz here… in Trump’s own house, his front yard, his back yard and garage. Rubio was the best competition in Virginia, where Cruz wilted… and the Maryland and Delaware primaries are coming up soon too. That’s six more Trump wins, and the only remaining elephant, California, is unlikely to be Cruz Country. This state elected The Arnold, it will nominate The Donald.

The only possible unknown at this point (March 16th 2016), is how much Kasich can be inflated by endorsements and big money donors between now and June 7th (the California primary). If the Ohio governor can surge in April and May, then it’s possible that Trump will not have 1237 by the convention (and neither will anyone else).

But i’ll tell you what: if Trump gets to the Cleveland convention with 1225 pledged delegates and doesn’t get the nomination, then it’s completely curtains for the Republican Party. Trump takes his marbles and goes home, endorses Hillary, and she’ll get a Reagan-esque landslide, maybe as many as 240 in the Electoral College. The newly politicized Trump army will stay home, just like they always have in the 3 decades before Trump. Not only that, but they’ll be bitter about it. They are Trump’s marbles, not the GOP’s, and if he takes them out of play, they’ll stay out of play.

In this scenario, the Senate flips Blue, as blue as in 2008. And the House might still be in Republican hands in 2017, maybe not, but at best with a 5-seat Republican edge. Even if the House stays red, they will not be able to govern, so fractured that only legislation by acclamation will be possible. And a lot more people will be bitter about that too. Finally, the point will get through to the political middle that Republicans are incapable of governing as long as they’re wedded to the twin political fringes of social recidivism and fiscal rigidity.

On the other hand, if Trump does get the GOP nod, the entire political middle goes Democrat, turnout among minorities skyrockets (new registrations among Hispanics doubles their segment), and we have the same results as above: Clinton landslide and a blue Senate, though Republicans are less likely to hold the House, a House they still can’t do anything with if they did. In either case, the Republican Party is left in a shambles (at best), or splits into two parties (more likely). It gets even worse for them in 2020, but that’s an essay for another day.