What the heck? Why are pols and pundits piling on the poo-poohs for TPP? The Trans-Pacific Partnership is not just another trade deal, it is a plan for America remaining in charge of the world for another century. They already call the 1900’s the American Century, and the TPP, if it survives inane banter by know-naughts, will do the same for the 2000’s. Hey, that’s two in a row. Not quite enough to be an “Era”, but two Centuries in a row is on the way to becoming a historical “Period”.
First of all, the TPP is not about trade. The TPP is about geopolitics, and it is a masterpiece of diplomacy. Took 10 years to hammer it all out, and don’t tell the other Partners this, but we got almost everything we were after as far as trade. So as a trade deal, TPP is pretty good. But its purpose is not to lower trade barriers. The purpose is not to enrich corporations and steal American jobs.
The purpose of the Trans-Pacific Partnership is to make China a democracy in 2030.
And it will work, if we’re smart enough to sign it. There are 15 converging reasons why this ploy will work, ranging from simple demographics to a couple fairly complex economic principles. And, it will need a few political nudges in the 2020’s and a handful of military moves too. The TPP is not a guarantee on its own, but with a few nudges, it is a Golden Ticket to a second American Century.
Who are we partnering with? Not China, not North Korea, not Russia. And not the 3rd world. We’re closing deals with the new second world, what Eastern Europe and South America were in the last century. In their eyes, access to the biggantiest market in the world is gonna make them rich. In their dreams, they can get so very rich, that someday they can move their family to America. Errrm, i’d say that’s exactly what we want.
But that’s just a side benefit. Hordes of nouveau riche with trunks of cash are nothing new to America. What the TPP does on a broader scale is let a collection of not-Chinas morph into a viable substitute for China. A wider manufacturing base in East Asia allows the United States to decisively win any trade-war with anyone, anywhere, not just China. Raising that manufacturing capacity from low-tech, to mid-tech and hi-tech, removes China’s single economic advantage: an enormous workforce kept very docile.
Non-China countries in East Asia nearly equal China in human weight. Better access to American markets will light an economic fire under them all. It’s prickly to say it aloud, but that means downward pressure on wages in China. In a repressive society, well, we should know by now that political forces are both more volatile and also more trenched. Even if political forces are universally crappy, it’s much better to have them out in the open than within a silent Central Committee. You just don’t see coups in mature democracies.
The TPP will make South Korea a fully modern, 1st World nation. They’re mostly the way there already. The effect that has on North Korea will be profound, and the effect North Korea’s coup has on China will be leviathan. What we’ll see in South East Asia is similar, the rise of a class of players who have more stake in economic integration than nationalism. Economy requires stable policy, and the mature democracies have proved, by now, that semi-autonomous economic policy, one that is halfway insulated from politics, yields exponential results.
When this happens in most of China’s neighbors, and the results start to become undeniable, well, there’s no way to harness a billion+ people who see greener grass over the fence. They’re gonna want greener grass. I know, China is historically predisposed to be ruled by an emperor, but they have at least had the farce of elections for decades. There is at least a system in place, to be co-opted when the first local counter-revolutions start.
All this, the TPP sets into motion. It’s the final nail in the 1800’s worldview, where nation states rattle gunboats and big eats small. Many opponents of TPP fear a broader reach of multinational corps and devaluation of American workers. Rather, the TPP boosts American know-how by opening more markets for our technical and cultural exports. The jobs may flow out in drips and drabs but the inflow of talent and treasure will ensure that America stays in charge of the world for the rest of the century.
TPP is not about trade. It is about lifting 1.3 billion people from the 1800’s into the 2000’s, although they will likely come kicking and screaming. No prob, d00d, that’s how America did it too. We’ll wait for you. The point is that TPP lets us do the screaming, and less kicking. Reliable elections and a semi-autonomous economic policy throw a wet blanket over punching people.